#analysis #Freetime #Speculations
Let’s compare the pool breakdowns for the last 2 draws to see how we are fairing in terms of the number of candidates in the pool.
As obvious and expected, the pool numbers are no longer growing as they were earlier, simply because of no IELTS/TEF/CELPIP and no new ECAs being released.

Screenshot (72)_LI
Screenshot (74)_LI
The only pool increases are mainly constituting of candidates who are getting

  1. Nominations
  2. FSW – Whose work experience points are updated
  3. FSW – Whose siblings points were added
  4. CEC – New, who completed their 1-year experience
  5. CEC – Who completed additional work experience
  6. FSW – Who completed Canadian Education
  7. Others – Who I have forgotten to account for.🧐🧐
With IRCC continuing its PNP/CEC trend, we expect to see a CEC draw very soon, today, tomorrow or within a week.
Its also possible, that CIC maintains its draw size of 3900 as obvious in the past few weeks and with CEC program-specific draw, we can also expect to see a drop in CRS score to the range of 445-450
With these draws become a new regular feature, and with a restricted number of new profiles entering the pool, I am a rejuvenated #foreverhopeful
Why??
Because it is obvious that the first few FSW draws, whenever they happen will be like a bumper crop.

With strict social distancing protocols in place, I don’t expect to see IELTS restarting in the first or second phase unless IELTS proposes some serious distancing protocols, which would mean increased costs for its facilities and operations.
ECA may be slow and delayed whenever they restart due to tremendous backlogs and reduced worker strength allowed in offices.

This will be the perfect recipe for a substantial drop in FSW CRS scores, with the only missing component being, when IRCC chooses to conduct them. I would sure like to see it happening sooner than later.

I know many of you are facing the premise of their oncoming birthdays and expiring IELTS results, which would mean a drop in CRS scores. I don’t see IRCC making any exceptions or providing any relief for these factors, simply because they don’t need to. As someone aptly reminded me, that “ITA for Permanent Residence is a privilege and not an automatic right”, so expecting relief measures here would be illogical, though highly desirable.

But I remain as usual #foreverhopeful

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