#Pensive #foreverhopeful #nevergiveup #makeithappen
#HoliMood #Outlook #ItsAlwaysPromising
As I sit on my table all drenched in color, looking at all the queries that continuously flow in, I only feel blessed and thankful.
Blessed, because I am alive and healthy and surrounded by my loved ones.
Thankful, because so many of you have consistently trusted me and our moderator team with your countless queries.
Yesterday’s CRS draw was disappointing. Yes, it was a real downer. But then it was expected. CRS of 452 was drawn, yesterday 20th March 2019.
When CIC can give you 438 so early in the year, allow them some rope so that they can balance their count of ITAs.
This year we expect them to issue ITAs in the range of 92000-94000. This is based on the annual new immigrant targets under the economic class, historical rejection-refusal ratios, the average number of immigrants per family under each application, etc etc.
So based on these statistics, if there are 24-26 draws in 2019, then they will be required to issue roughly 3500 ITAs per draw.
So if they have started out with 3900, they will obviously need to reduce these during some period to balance out.
But this also means that the draw sizes are slated to go up again, just like they did in 2018.
We are seeing a very slow and gradual decrease in points and it brings back the painful draw memories from 2017 post the most eventful draw of 413 on 31st May. There was a long gap due to the sibling/French speaker point changes and the next draw was very high and it never dropped ever again to below 430s.
When questioning the reasons for high scores, we need to understand the EE pool breakdown. Draw comparisons from historical trends and understand where and how these high scorers are making their way to the pool and ever too quickly.
Allow me to offer a window on this insight:
In 2018 the number of international students from India alone rose to 170,000. The total number of international students in Canada reached 572,415 in 2018, up from 492,545 the year before. Indians were the largest takers of the issued study permits overtaking the Chinese.
Temporary Work Permits
Canada issues roughly 120,000 temporary work permits each over to cover its skilled workforce shortage. So no matter how difficult it may seem, there is someone out there who is successful in securing this coveted document to legally work in Canada
Canada has a very successful international mobility program and under this, it offers open work permits to several eligible applicants. The criteria for selection varies under its different streams and the total numbers issued runs into 100s of 1000s.
Spouse Open Work Permits
As we all know that spouses of eligible temporary resident students or workers are eligible to apply for open work permits. Again, Canada issues several 1000 work permits for spouses under this category
Now to put all this into perspective, all the above category of permits/visas allows Canada to take advantage of people who already have some Canadian exposure and thus allowing them to integrate into the Canadian society easily.
This is why additional points are given for Canadian work experience and Canadian education in the Express Entry System. (See the points grid here
Obviously, you can not blame Canada for doing this. After all, it is in their best interest to invite those people as new immigrants who will find it easier to adopt Canada as home in the fastest possible time and become a contributing resident/citizen and obviously not pose any burden on their social services.
Express Entry is now maturing as it has successfully entered into the 5th year of its existence. Canada is now the most promising and favored country when it comes to migrating options. New Zealand with limited opportunities, Australia with higher barrier and hardly any other country out there offering easy immigration, it is Canada that comes on the top of the list.
People now know this and understand this. So many the journey or the process starts years back as they understand the requirement to achieve high scores.
Since education and language skills add a big chunk of points, people concentrate on obtaining their Master’s degree or at least an additional 1 year PG Diploma along with IELTS scores of CLB9 or 10 and all this before they turn 32-33 years of age.
Many who were still not able to hit that mark, decided to turn to French as a second language. Months of hard work and effort have helped them secure desired results in the language test and gain important CRS points.
Take a look at widely shared timelines by successful applicants and you will see the months and years of effort that a lot of them have put in the process to obtain high desired scores to get their “Invitation to Apply” and thus entry into Canada as permanent residents.
I hope all the above explains the high influx of candidates who are entering the ever-growing express entry pool with high scores.
So does that mean, everyone else should give up????
Adding French to your arsenal will be a dual benefit. Your CRS may improve, several PNP options will open up for you and you will find it a big advantage in your job search once you get to Canada.
Well to cut this long blog short, let’s understand that CRS scores will continue to remain high with scores of new candidates entering the profile.
The EE pool size is growing each day to never before numbers.
The number averaged in 42000 in 2017, increased to 80,000 in mid-late 2018 and is now already at 101,000
It means more and more people are prepared, understand and are entering the pool every day.
Draw size was 3900+ when the score of 413 was drawn on 31st May 2017. But the pool size was roughly 41000. That meant 9.5% of the candidates were drawn from the pool.
In comparison now, the draw size was 3350 and the pool was of 101,000 candidates. This means only 3.3% of the candidates were drawn from the pool.I hope all the above explains why the scores have been high and will continue to be high.
Is 450 now the new 440 of 2018? Well, I don’t think so. At least not yet.
I am quite hopeful to see the scores dip down to under 450 soon and then probably hover in the mid 440s and sometimes touch low 440s.
Obviously, this depends on the number of ITAs issued per draw and how frequently ICCRC decides to conduct the draws.
So until your score gets drawn, look for other options that may help you get those extra CRS points. Don’t let go of hope. If this is meant to be, it most certainly will, but will need that hard work and effort from you.
As Nike says is quite well…… “Just do it”