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Next #EEDraw 20 July

Express Entry Pool Breakdown and Analysis | Next #EEDraw 20 July

Hello and welcome. Good morning. Welcome to the channel. Express entry draw. And that obviously happened just the way IRCC had said they would be conducting. It was conducted on the 6 July just the way Sean Fraser has been coming out and announcing that they would be conducting the draws. Just the way he said that they would be conducting an all program draw. They did conduct an all program draw. In a pool of 2260 people they have invited only 1500 people. IRCC was issuing anywhere between 600 to roughly 1000 invitations because of the PNP, the number of people who are receiving the nomination, mind you nominations or other PNP have roughly 80,000 annual quota. Of course all 80,000 is not express entry. Of course that is quite clear, right? All 80,000 is not express entry but a good portion of that is express entry. And even if you say each draw is roughly 700 nominations than the issue, if you multiply that by 26, what do I get here? That’s 18,200. So 18,200 annually out of the 18,000 quota is roughly going to express entry and if they’re going to issue only 1500 as your invitations, the score is not going anywhere. So I hope his gradual basically is more rushed to graduate. I hope it doesn’t mean 1500 invitations for the first 12345 expedited draws and then slowly progress. I hope it’s not that. It is also an understanding. Also we realized that one of the reasons are one of the biggest reasons that they did not want to conduct a big draw, preponderance sized draw that they were conducting, which is about 3500 on average is because of the backlogs. Now IRCC was expecting initially the talk was or the play was that once they have cleared at least 50% of their inventory they would then start conducting the FHS Federal High Skill category draws which is explicitly then they wanted to hold back further because all their staff had still not gone back to the different offices. They wanted to hold that back. At the last count the numbers that we received in the month of June, which was for the month of May and later there we saw that almost 30,000 people are still in the backlog in Express Century. This includes Canadian experience class. This includes federal skill trades. And this includes federal skill workers. So with this backlog still existing the anticipation was that by July they would have cleared most of it. If they have only five or 10,000 remaining, you can still understand because a lot of people do have complexities in their application, everybody cannot get their applications cleared like this and obviously I think also now looking to clear the applications within six months processing. So with all this in mind, keeping all of this in consideration, they decided that they still need more time to clear the backlogs before they can then start issuing the draw size. As to the preponderance now prepondering they keep saying the draw sizes are between 3200 to 4000 invitations per draw. I’m just going with the average of 3500 because it sort of seems a better round number to go with because an internal member was shared. We all seem like we all discussed about it, but the indication was that they want to start conducting the draws at the pre-pandamic level. So the expectation from our side was about 3500 invitations. Hopefully, fingers crossed, the next draw will be slightly higher because of the word gradually there. So you can expect anywhere between 2000 to 2500 invitations now, if there are 2000 to 2500 invitations now, let’s look at the express entry pool range between 601 and 1200. This 669 people are the ones who received their nomination, the 600 points. As I said earlier, as we go further, you will also keep seeing people who receive nominations. So expect always there would be approximately 600 to 1000 people in that range of people who get nominations. So the minute you take that number away, the remaining number is already scary. Between 501 to 600. At the time that the draw was conducted, the breakdown was 8773. That basically means 8000 people are still in that group. Now, keep in mind, always keep in mind, express entry pool is very dynamic. Means people keep getting added to the pool, people keep improving this course. People’s siblings are landing, people have completed the French exams, people have gotten the Irish results. People who are inside Canada have completed their education. They’ve completed one year work experience, two years of work experience, etc. Etc. So the number which shows as much as now probably at 8000 would by the next draw would also go up. But mind you, let me also give you this perspective. What is 557? Who gets 557? A lot of people are saying that this is only for PNP, where PNP is already clear. So another 800 people did get the express entry invitation. But these 557 and above, most of them are not CEC. There are a few CEC. Of course they will be a CC because even for Canadian Experience class candidate, to get 557 is a real tall or a real tall task. It’s not easy for them to get 557. So these people in the score of 557, the number of people who have received their invitation, and the majority of them are the ones who have a job offer, a valid job offer with an LMIA. Those are the ones who have got these 200 points. So they could be sitting at a prospective score of 383 9400 and they got 200 points because of the LMIA, because of the job offer, valid job offer. Maybe they were intra company transfer. They were in Canada on a Senior Executive Director CX CTO General Manager position, and they have completed a period of one year and they have now received the 200 points. Along with the creative experience, when people are wondering how and where did these people come from? Well, you have to also keep in mind for the last one and a half year, the draws haven’t taken place. And because the draws haven’t taken place, all these people have been accumulated in that section, in that group of 550 and above. That is where these people are coming from. So don’t lose hope so quickly. 557 is not going to stay there because majority of them are already clear. So now you do not have them. But keep in mind there are still a lot of people who have job offers, whether it’s through LMIAs, intracompany transfers or other work permits, which is LMI exempt, but gives them the points for job offer. So those would also be there in that 500 plus circuit and they would obviously be receiving invitation. So if you’re looking at 500 plus scores, you guys are safe. If any one of you out there has a score of 500, you know for a fact you’re safe. In my opinion. Bill C 19, which is the other concern that people have that is not coming anytime soon. So if you’re thinking that even sitting at a score of 500 plus and you may not get an invitation, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Everybody at 500 plus definitely is getting an invitation. It’s the people who are below 500 who are now freaking out. Okay, 500 plus, even if they keep conducting, let’s say three or four draws of 1502 thousand each, you would all get through anyways. Okay? I don’t think it will be 1500 each. For six draws it would be at least going up to 202,000. 2500 hopefully gets up to 3000, 3500 prep and levels. Hopefully we should see that soon because once they get to that, the scores will obviously come down below 500 and then keep dropping as and how they issue more invitations per drop. It’s the people in 470s who are really freaking out. It’s those people who are really worried, concerned, thinking this year, is it going to happen? Is it not going to happen? In my expectations, as we started, rather before the draws happen, we were expecting roughly 450 invitations to be issued. It seems that that may not be the case at this point of time. Again, highly, highly dependent on the fact of how many invitations IRCC continues to issue each drop. But this is all speculative. So if they will issue 45,000. For example. Now they are issuing 1500 and they still want to issue $45,000. What that basically will mean that they will come a time over this period of next six months. They will come a time when they will either do a back to back draw or they might conduct a few drawers which are heavy in their size. Which I’m talking about maybe 50 00. 60 00 invitations kind of a thing. Because they’ve done 6000 before. Right? So there is a high possibility also IRCC does realize there are a lot of Canadian Experience Class candidates who are sitting in the excess entry pool, who are of course largely affected because of this high CRS. I mean, most Canadian Experience Class are not going through if the scores remain 550 plus. Most of them, very few of them will, but most of them are not going through with 550 plus. So the scores have to come down. The scores will come down. At this point of time, with this current state of affairs, it’s not looking at 470s. That easy, that soon, that quick. So therefore the fingers crossed. Now, I know Bill C 19 has also equally been a very, very hot topic of discussion for the last few weeks, months, and a lot of people are concerned. Don’t think Bill C 19 is your enemy or don’t think of it as something which is a resistant force. Think of it as something which will be in your benefit. Yes, it will not be in everybody’s benefit. I agree

 

that everybody will get benefit of it. A lot of you who otherwise have zero chance in express entry. For example, if you’re on a score of 300, do you have a chance in express entry? No, you don’t have a chance. If you’re in the scores of low 400, do you have a chance in expert? No, you don’t have a chance at X plus. It’s futile even discussing about it. But with Bill C 19, what ICC will plan to do, we all know it has been approved, right? So with Bill C 19 being approved. Once it is implemented. IRC would be able to create categories within the express entry pool and then pick and choose people based on their labor market demands. Based on their requirements. Based on their mandate letters. Based on their priorities. As they might have it. In that what would happen is when they create categories. Then the limited number of people within the pool. Within those categories. Even if their CRS score is low. Will have a good chance of being invited. And that’s where the benefit comes in. So please do not lose hope already. Please don’t start thinking it’s all doom and doom for Canada and express entry. It’s not okay? They will still invite more than 450,000 people this year and then moving onwards next year. And then at some point in time we will get to a half a million figure as well with the way things are going. So the immigration is not going to stop, it’s not ending. The reason for that is without immigration, Canada will go to the negative population growth, which basically means it’s not healthy for the Canadian economy as well. So therefore, in the big scheme of things, Canadian aggression is not going to stop the PNP. Now, I need to give a very brief mention about PNPs as well. With IRCC doing the category based draws and the way they would conduct the categories and they would sort of identify people from specific categories. It also means that PNP’s would have to realign how they conduct their programs, how they will invite people, who they will invite from the pool that is available. At the end of the day, the reason why provinces invite people or give them nominations is because they want those people to come and live in their province. If everybody is going to go through the federal immigration way, then they will all basically go to Toronto or Vancouver or Montreal, in some cases Calgary, Edmonton, and that’s it. Nobody wants to go to North Korea, nobody wants to go to New Philippines, Labrador, nobody wants to go to Manitoba or Saturday. And these provinces, basically, how are they going to encourage people to come to their provinces? So PNP is going to remain very important. But with IRCC going the category way and Lower CRS being invited, PNP’s will have to re-strategize. PMPs will have to rethink how they invite people. And there has to be a bigger push from PMPs to start inviting people because it is going to be needed. Thank you very much, everybody, for joining in today. If you wish to make an appointment, then that is the link. Please, by all means you can make an appointment and we can discuss your application, your queries or concerns, one on one. Of course. Please don’t forget to subscribe to the channel. We need to see those numbers going up. And thank you very much.

I’m I wish you all the very best and I will see you next time.