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A sunny Monday filled with hope and positivity:
What a Monday it was… Wow!
Haven’t had such an exciting day in a loong time.
Early morning surprise federal draw with a 10 point drop and followed closely by OINP NOIs issuance for a much lower CRS range.
OINP NOI = Lowest I heard of, is 415 and I also heard other scores ranging all the way up to 445.
But mainly the target seemed to be ICT NOCs and French Speakers.
This has brought about a flurry of posts, comments, and queries asking if their score/NOC will receive NOI.
Honestly speaking, none of us know and none can say as to who will receive and who won’t. The selection criteria adopted by OINP is a complete mystery with no transparency whatsoever. What we know is only through information sharing.
What we can say is that this surprise draw and drop in OINP point range has made a lot of us more hopeful. Suddenly it feels as if there will be light at the end of this long tunnel.
It is quite obvious that OINP is issuing NOIs in tandem with CIC and for the first 3 months has run a very tight ship.
However, if the point range is any indicator, then it only seems that as earlier anticipated CRS will start forcing CRS to go lower.
In my earlier post also I had indicated that CIC had deliberately pushed CRS down in 2017 and they did it by back to back draws and large ITAs drawn per draw.
If at all they conduct another draw this coming Wednesday on 28th March, then this will be a confirmed indication of that intention for 2018 as well.
Though the pessimist in me also says that today’s draw was a make-up draw for the Wednesday that was missed this month.
While the #foreverhopeful in me is what keeps me going and going strong all the way, I am wary of the increasing pool size. It stands at 80K+ today and that’s quite a large number if one was to compare it to 48k at the end of 2017.
The pool breakdown in the range of 430-450 is a scary number. Its an indicator of the high average of new entrants in the pool every day.
This only means that for scores to drop to 420s, CIC has to start issuing at least 3800-4200 ITAs per draw and there has to be more than a few back to back draws.
413 is the lowest CRS ever drawn. Its happened once and who is to say it won’t happen again or that it won’t go lower than that. But the realist in me says that it’s going to be very very difficult for the scores to see low 420s or go under 420 this year and that is only due to the existing and ever-increasing pool strength. So if you are in this score range and you get NOI from Ontario or if you see any option with a different PNP, don’t waste another moment and grab it.
If you have an opportunity to improve your CRS, then do it.
If and when the CRS does drop and I am sure that it will, it will be a small window of opportunity. Possibly that window will be of 2-4 draws. This is when the CRS will see its lowest score for this year. NO ONE can predict or anticipate what that bottom post would be. The coming weeks will show us that.
So if you are waiting on the sidelines and haven’t created your EE profile or know someone who is contemplating. Do yourself and them a favor and get in the pool.
With the H1B issues cropping in the US and 457 visa issues rearing in Australia, Canada is going to become the favorite hit point for the aspiring immigrants all over the world. I won’t be surprised to see the EE candidate pool strength boil over 100k within the next few months.
So amongst all this, when the window of lower CRS happens, you MUST be there to grab it. While at it, make sure your EE profile is accurate and that you don’t need to decline that invitation for any reason. If Canada is your dream, then you will need to be in the pool to make it happen for you.
P.S: Please don’t ask me the chances for your CRS or your NOC. I honestly don’t know and can’t speculate. I can only hope and wish everyone the very best.